Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk
We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis.
Hiring companyMercor
About the role
Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.
This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.
Backgrounds we look at first: political science departments and survey research centers at universities in the target states, state and regional pollsters, state-level campaign and party analytics teams, and decision desks or race-ratings outlets with state-specific coverage. National forecasting or political-risk experience is welcome when paired with deep knowledge of a specific state. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.
Not a fit
- Profiles whose experience is mainly international politics, geopolitics, or country risk, with little or no work on US races.
- Analysts who have not worked on a current or recent US race in the state they would cover.
- Pure communications or journalism profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.
- Academic profiles whose work is purely theoretical, with no analysis of live races.
Point-in-time discipline
Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
Contract and Payment Terms
- You will be engaged as an independent contractor.
- This is a fully remote role that can be completed on your own schedule.
- Projects can be extended, shortened, or concluded early depending on needs and performance.
- Your work at Mercor will not involve access to confidential or proprietary information from any employer, client, or institution.
Responsibilities
- Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
- Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
- Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
- Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.
Required skills
- Local political analysts with hands-on experience on specific races in swing states: current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state.
- On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, the candidates, and the local political environment, from roles such as university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff, or state political-risk analyst.
- A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races — not retrospective commentary.
- Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
- Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance.
Eligibility
Work arrangement: Fully remote
Eligible countries: Canada, United States
Please note: We are unable to support H1-B or STEM OPT candidates at this time.
Compensation details
$150–$250 per hour.
- Payments are weekly on Stripe or Wise based on services rendered.
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